Thursday, September 28, 2006

You'll Get What We Give You

So shut the fuck up. AP (09.27.06), via Josh Marshall:
"The White House refused Wednesday to release the rest of a secret intelligence assessment that depicts a growing terrorist threat, as the Bush administration tried to quell election-season criticism that its anti-terror policies are seriously off track." Bush Won't Release Full Intel Assessment
Big Don explains that the President "had declassified the report's key judgments, after parts of it were leaked to the news media, so that 'the American people and the world will be able to see the truth and precisely what that document says.'" Uhhhh, sure. Say. You don't suppose there's something in there George and the boys don't want us to see, do you?

2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mr Bush was certainly in a bind with that one.

He could keep the NIE secret, and see it dominate the headlines as we run up to the November elections. Or he could take the wind out of everyone sails by publishing it, and suffer the criticism of his failed policies.

I am glad he chose to publish. Ummm, why was it secret in the first place? Oh yes. Because it lists 16 ways in which Mr Bushs's policies are making things WORSE.

Here are the parts of the NIE that suggest President Bush's premption strategy in Iraq was a reckless failed gamble that made things worse:

1. al-Qa’ida will continue to pose the greatest threat to the Homeland and US interests abroad by a single terrorist organization.

2. the global jihadist movement — which includes al-Qa’ida, is spreading and adapting to counterterrorism efforts.

3. jihadists are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion.

4. threats to US interests will become more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide.

5. New jihadist networks are increasingly likely to emerge. Shared purpose and dispersed actors will make it harder to find and undermine jihadist groups.

6. threats from self-radicalized cells will grow in the Homeland.

7. Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives;

8. The Iraq conflict has become the .cause celebre. for jihadists

9. factors fueling the spread of the movement outweigh its vulnerabilities

10. 4 factors are fueling the spread of the jihadist movement: (1) Entrenched corruption, injustice, and fear of Western domination, (2) the Iraq .jihad;. (3) the slow pace of real and sustained reforms (4) pervasive anti-US sentiment.

11. Countering the spread of the jihadist movement will require coordinated multilateral efforts that go well beyond operations to capture or kill terrorist leaders.

12. Al-Qa’ida, now merged with Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi’s network, is exploiting the situation in Iraq

13. al-Zarqawi could broaden his popular appeal and present a global threat.

14. increased role of Iraqis in al-Qa.ida in Iraq might lead veteran foreign jihadists to focus their efforts on external operations.

15. Fighters with experience in Iraq are a potential source of leadership for jihadists

16. Anti-US and anti-globalization sentiment is on the rise

----

Here are the parts of the NIE that suggest President Bush did something right:

1. We "have seriously damaged the leadership of al-Qa’ida and disrupted its operations" (Great, but they are not the only threat)

2. the loss of key AQ leaders makes it a less serious threat to US interests (Just point 1, restated)
----

Here are the parts of the NIE that suggest President Bush's premption strategy in Iraq may some day improve things, if they don't get worse:

1. IF jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have failed, fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight.

2. IF democratic reform efforts in Muslim majority nations progress over the next five years, political participation probably would drive a wedge between intransigent extremists and (other) groups.

---

So according to the findings of the US INtelligence Agencies, President Bush's policies in Iraq have made things worse in 16 ways, but there are 2 ways things might get better, if they change.

Read it and weep.

9:40 AM  
Blogger Free Thinker said...

Anonymous:

You mentioned this:

"2. IF democratic reform efforts in Muslim majority nations progress over the next five years, political participation probably would drive a wedge between intransigent extremists and (other) groups."

The problem here is that the NIE is probably talking about places like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Pakistan, where the majority-muslim populations are angry with US-supported non-democratic governments. I'm guessing that this is one reason why they aren't declassifying the whole thing... most in the US don't really understand this dynamic.

10:24 AM  

Post a Comment