Hello George? Hello Karl? Say Goodbye To The Base

Emerging Democratic Majority (07.25.05):

"Pundits like to point out how dependent the Democrats are on the minority vote and, therefore, how vulnerable the Democrats would be to any weakening in that support. True enough. But it's also true--perhaps even more so--that the GOP is utterly dependent on high levels of support among whites and, therefore quite vulnerable to any weakening of support among these voters. And weakening of white support for the GOP appears to be precisely what's happening--though you'd never guess it from the deafening silence among the very pundits who like to tut-tut about the Democrats' dependence on the minority vote." Whites Moving Away from GOP

Ruy looks at a recent Gallup report "based on results of their 2005 and earlier Minority Relations polls" (it's here, if you have a subscription), and finds some very interesting numbers. First, approval ratings:

• In June of 2004, Bush's approval rating among non-Hispanic whites was 61 percent. This June, it's down to 47 percent, with 48 percent disapproval.
• Bush's approval ratings among blacks is flat-lined at 16 percent in the two polls.
• Hispanics haven't really budged either, giving Bush a 40 percent rating in 2004 and a 41 percent rating in 2005.

Even more interesting, even startling, is as to party identification. "In June of 2004, the GOP enjoyed a 19 point lead in party ID (including leaners) over the Democrats among whites." Here we are, one year later, and we find that "the Democrats actually have a small 2 point lead in party ID among whites." "That's a huge shift. Combined with the Democrats' current 60 point lead in party ID among blacks and 19 point lead among Hispanics, that makes the GOP look quite vulnerable indeed."