Future's So Bright

Gotta wear sunglasses. Kash at Street Light muses on the accuracy of the economists' predictions. We start with 2.4% first quarter GDP growth, from a couple months ago. Bloomberg (03.08.07):

"The U.S. economy will strengthen during the year, overcoming declines in housing, business investment and stock markets, a survey of economists showed.

The world's largest economy may expand at a 2.4 percent annual rate this quarter, and accelerate to 3 percent by year's end, according to the median estimate of 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News from March 1 to March 7."

Growth in U.S. to Firm Through 2007, Economists Say

It came in at 1.3%. They then came up with this. WSJ (05.10.07), via Street Light:

"The worst of the economic slowdown has passed, private economists said in the latest WSJ.com forecasting survey. But they don't see any reason to expect a significant acceleration.

By a more than 5-to-1 margin, the economists said they believe the first quarter's 1.3% growth -- the weakest in four years -- marked the low point in the slowdown that gripped the economy much of last year."

Economy Is Clawing Back, but Not Much

Fast forward one day. The low point's been lowered, it would appear. Bloomberg (05.11.07):

"U.S. economic growth last quarter, already reported as the slowest in four years, will probably be revised even lower after figures this week showed a wider trade gap and a drop in inventories."

U.S. First-Quarter Growth Estimates Drop on Trade, Inventory

"Economists now forecast first-quarter growth, reported last month at a 1.3 percent annual rate, may actually have been as low as 0.5 percent."

So, uhhh, they're not like making this shit up, are they?

In the meantime, in between time, ain't we got fun? Bloomberg (05.12.07):

"U.S. stocks climbed for a sixth week, the longest stretch of gains since 2004, after easing inflation and takeovers overshadowed signs of an economic slowdown."

U.S. Stocks Gain for Sixth Week on Takeovers, Easing Inflation