Sunday, November 04, 2007

Get A Job

NYTimes (11.02.07), via The Big Picture:
"[Last week's] employment report is mediocre at best. But to understand that, you have to look past the headline numbers.

Those numbers say that the government’s survey of employers showed a gain of 130,000 private sector jobs, on a seasonally adjusted basis, in October. That seems to be better than in recent months.

I don’t believe it."

Making Up Jobs

"Most of those jobs — 103,000 of them, before seasonal adjustment — were added by the statisticians, not reported by employers. (It should be noted that, before seasonal adjustment, there were 201,000 jobs added, so this is just more than half.)"

"Why add jobs? It is an effort to include jobs created by new companies not surveyed, less an estimate for jobs lost at companies that went out of busjiness and therefore did not respond to the survey."

Welcome to the CES Net Birth/Death Model.

"Of those 103,000 jobs, 14,000 were in the construction industry, and 25,000 were in finance. Does anyone believe that all those new companies are being created in those industries now?"

As Barry notes, 80% percent of the new jobs reported were attributable to these statistical adjustments. Meaning they weren't "real" jobs.



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